zaterdag 3 november 2018

1987..2008…Now look at this!



NICK O’CONNOR
Dear Reader,
 
1987…
 
 
2008…
 
 
Now, here is the FTSE 100 since the beginning of September:
 
 
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 
Right now, pressure is building in Europe…
 
Building up to a crash that I believe will be three or four times bigger than the one we experienced in 2008.
 
Today, you can grab a FREE copy of the book that explains everything you need to know…
 
And shows you exactly how to preserve your financial future.
 
 
Best,
 
Nick O’Connor
Publisher, Southbank Investment Research

EUROPA THE MOST GULLIBLE CONTINENT



Door Realpredictor
EUROPA HET MEEST LICHTGELOVIGE CONTINENT!
EUROPE THE ONLY CONTINENT THAT WELCOMES THEIR OWN DESTRUCTORS UNDER THE EXCUSE OF "DIVERSITY"
Europa het enige Continent dat hun eigen Vernietigers verwelkomt, met het excuus van "Diversiteit"!
Realpredictor | november 2, 2018 om 5:18 pm | Categorieën:Uncategorized | URL: https://wp.me/p2frGR-dA7

Hoe een neonazi Jezus vindt



‘Het voelt nu alsof ik deel uitmaak van een familie’
in Geloven
Voormalig worstelaar Keith ‘Duke’ Schneider raakt in de ban van het gedachtegoed van de neonazi’s en wordt zelfs de persoonlijke bewaker van de commandant van deze beweging. Tot hij verliefd wordt op een Afro-Amerikaanse vrouw, die al jaren voor hem bidt.
Het verhaal dat de afgelopen maanden in diverse Amerikaanse media opdook, is op z’n minst opmerkelijk. Het begint bij de jeugd van Keith, waarin hij veel documentaires over de Tweede Wereldoorlog, Hitler, en het Derde Rijk bekijkt. Die documentaires houden hem op de been, want in zijn jeugd lijdt Keith onder huiselijk geweld. Hij houdt zichzelf voor dat de nazi's sterk waren, en die gedachte vindt hij aantrekkelijk. Thuis krijgt hij weinig liefde. Zijn moeder – die een bipolaire stoornis heeft – slaat hem vaak en houdt hem vaak voor dat hij ongewenst is en een grote last is. Zijn vader is niet alleen gewelddadig, maar verheerlijkt het geweld ook. Het bezorgt Keith een laag zelfbeeld.
Een gebroken neus zet hij zelf weer recht

Professioneel worstelaar

Op de middelbare school wint Keith de eerste prijs met worstelen. Het is een sport waar hij in verder gaat, en hij groeit uit tot professioneel worstelaar. Door de klappen die hij als kind heeft opgelopen, heeft hij een hoge pijngrens. Een gebroken neus zet hij – ook tijdens een worstelwedstrijd – zelf weer recht. Elke klap die hij krijgt, motiveert hem nog meer om zich door niemand meer pijn te laten doen.

Problemen met een stalker

Als Keith na zijn worstelcarrière bewaker wordt, zoekt Catherine Boone, een Afro-Amerikaanse vrouw, contact met hem. Zij heeft problemen met een stalker en wil door Keith beschermd worden. Hij aanvaardt het verzoek. Het is makkelijk te combineren met zijn overige werk, dat hij ’s nachts doet.

Infiltratie

Op een dag wordt Catherine in een bus door een groep skinheads lastiggevallen. Om hun gedachten te kunnen begrijpen, besluit Keith daarop in een neonazigroep te infiltreren. Hij raakt er echter door geobsedeerd en klimt vervolgens op in de hiërarchie van deze beweging, krijgt de leiding over de hele SS-divisie en wordt ten slotte de persoonlijke bewaker van Jeff Schoep, de commandant van deze nazibeweging.

Bidden

Met pijn in haar hart ziet Catherine, een overtuigd christen, hoe Keith verandert. Ze waarschuwt hem, maar haar waarschuwingen hebben geen effect. Het laatste wat Catherine nog kan doen, is bidden. Vaak spreidt ze foto’s van Keith uit op haar bed en bidt voor hem.

Gezwel van 8 centimeter

Als Keith op een dag voor een routineonderzoek bij de dokter is, blijkt hij een gezwel van acht centimeter in zijn keel te hebben. Zijn wereld stort in. “Ik ga dood,” zegt Keith in de auto tegen Catherine. De man die fysiek zo veel heeft doorstaan, is bang. Catherine stelt hem voor naar de kerk te gaan, zodat de dominee voor hem kan bidden. Keith stemt daarmee in. Het is de opmaat tot zijn bekering.

Geen bestraling

Vanaf dat moment gaat het snel. Een paar dagen later staat hij voor in de kerk, belijdt zijn zonden en verklaart hij in Jezus te geloven. De oudsten en de voorganger bidden voor hem en voor zijn genezing. Als de artsen daags daarna de tumor verwijderd hebben, melden ze Keith dat het gezwel tegen elke verwachting in goedaardig is. Hij heeft geen chemotherapie of bestraling nodig. “Een wonder van God,” zegt Keith.

Trouwen

In het ziekenhuis heeft Keith tijd om na te denken, onder andere over hoeveel Catherine voor hem betekent. Hoewel Catherine vanaf het begin verliefd op Keith was, heeft zij daar nooit iets over gezegd. Hij zegt tegen haar haar: "Zodra ik weer op krachten ben, wil ik met je trouwen." Hij zegt ook toe met de nazibeweging te zullen breken, en houdt woord. 

Beveiliging

Nog steeds is Keith actief als bewaker. Hij werkt in Brooklyn, Amerika, en wordt ingezet bij de bewaking van een synagoge en van joodse scholen. Keith: “Voor het eerst is het een vreugde om te werken. Het voelt alsof ik deel uitmaak van een familie. Een aantal van deze mensen kennen mijn geschiedenis en zijn blij dat ik deze ommekeer heb gemaakt. Viel ik eerst deze mensen aan, nu bescherm ik hen met mijn leven.”

Jobs Smash Estimates With Gain of 250,000, Wage Gains Pass 3% for First Time Since Recession



The new jobs numbers released this morning are a homerun for American workers: “Job growth blew past expectations in October and year-over-year wage gains jumped past 3 percent for the first time since the Great Recession,” Jeff Cox reports for CNBC.
“Nonfarm payrolls powered up by 250,000 for the month, well ahead of Refinitiv estimates of 190,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7 percent, the lowest since December 1969... But the bigger story may be wage growth, which has been the missing piece of the economic recovery.”
 
Speaking from the White House yesterday, President Donald J. Trump highlighted the urgent need to confront America’s border crisis, Fred Lucas writes in The Daily Signal. The President announced that “he is working on an executive order to deny automatic entry to the U.S. to illegal immigrants claiming asylum unless they go to a legal port of entry.” The Administration’s goal is to “end the rampant abuse of our asylum system.”
 
In CNS News, Terence P. Jeffrey reports that “manufacturing jobs in the United States increased by 32,000 in October and have now increased by 434,000 during the presidency of Donald Trump, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” American manufacturing employment peaked in 1979 and has been making a comeback under President Trump.
 
The Investor’s Business Daily editorial board poses this question: Are Americans better off than we were two years ago? “In the first three quarters of 2016, quarterly GDP growth was an anemic 1.5%, 2.3% and 1.9%. This year, quarterly GDP growth has been a far more robust 2.2%, 4.2% and 3.5%.” This turnaround under President Trump was not only unexpected “but deemed impossible by Democrats, who were trying to convince the public that 2% growth was the best this country could do.”

Soaring U.S. Oil Production Forces Prices Down



 
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Oil prices continued to slide on Friday afternoon, despite a small decline in the U.S./Canadian rig count.

















Friday, November 2, 2018

Iran sanctions are just days away but the market has come around to the idea that Iranian oil exports won’t be going to zero, despite months of promises from the Trump administration. New reports suggest waivers are in the offing. “Oil prices look to remain under pressure, as fears of global oversupply have returned with a vengeance,” Ashley Kelty, oil and gas research analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, told 
Reuters.

U.S. to grant waivers to eight countries importing Iranian oil. The U.S. has granted exemptions to eight importers of Iranian oil just days before sanctions on Iran take effect. The countries will be allowed to continue to import oil without fear of retribution from the U.S. as long as they continue to make reductions in those purchases, according to Bloomberg. Four of the countries include Iran’s top buyers – China, India, South Korea and Japan. The other four were not identified in the 
Bloomberg report, but the decision is expected to be announced on Monday.

U.S. oil production surges. The EIA said the U.S. produced more than 11.3 mb/d in August, a massive jump of over 400,000 bpd from a month earlier. The new record high also made the U.S. the largest oil producer in the world. Record output, combined with higher production from OPEC, has dealt sharp losses to crude oil prices amid mounting fears of oversupply.

Trump's admin sees “thaw” in relations with China. President Trump spoke with Xi Jingping by phone on Thursday, and Trump tweeted that the discussion went well. His economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that there was a “thaw” in relations. The two leaders are expected to meet later this month at the G20 summit in Argentina, and the conversation by phone this week raises the odds of a breakthrough on trade. Crucially, Bloomberg 
reports that Trump wants to reach a deal with Xi in Argentina, and he reportedly asked his cabinet to draft terms. However, hours after the phone call, the U.S. Justice Department unveiled charges against two Chinese companies for intellectual property theft, illustrating the difficult task of resolving differences between the two countries.

U.S. seeks to keep Middle East oil flowing. U.S. diplomats have reportedly stepped in to try to resolve disputes in the Middle East to increase oil flows. According to 
the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is trying to broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait over the Neutral Zone oil fields, which have 500,000 bpd of capacity but have been offline for years. The U.S. is also trying to help Iraq export more oil through Kurdistan, which would add another 300,000 bpd or so to global supplies. Washington is trying to ease these burdens at a time when it is seeking to shut in Iranian production.

EOG posts $1.2 billion in profit. EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) 
posted an enormous $1.2 billion in third quarter profit, up more than ten-fold from the $100 million profit a year earlier. The performance is a strong vote of confidence in shale drilling, after years of red ink across the industry.

Continental Resources doubles resource estimate. Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) 
doubled its estimated recoverable resources to 30-40 billion barrels, up from the previous estimate of 20 billion barrels set in 2011. “With today's completion technology we are recovering 15% and potentially 20% of the oil in place on a primary basis,” Continental’s President Jack Stark said during today's earnings conference call. “This is substantially higher than the recoveries that we thought possible back in 2011.”

Tanker rates up on higher OPEC production. Tanker rates are 
rising as OPEC ships more oil, pushing day-rates up to $51,000, up nearly three-fold from the $18,000 rates seen just a month ago.

Oil and gas sector needs consolidation. Top industry executives said that the oil and gas industry needs to consolidate, in order to reach scale, cut costs and streamline services. “There's a lot of smaller high-quality companies across industry where synergy and value can be captured” by combining, Chesapeake Energy’s (NYSE: CHK) CEO Doug Lawler said at the Deloitte Oil & Gas Conference, according to 
S&P Global Platts. “This will be a part of [Chesapeake's] strategy going forward.” Other top analysts and executives voiced similar sentiments, an indication that a new wave of M&A activity could be coming.

Petrobras could divest $20 billion. New Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has indicated he would not privatize Petrobras for now, but the company might still divest itself of some $20 billion worth of assets, according to a source for 
Reuters.

Economists: Brent to average $76 in 2019. A Reuters 
survey of 46 economists find an averaged predicted Brent crude price of $76.88 per barrel in 2019. The respondents see Iran sanctions putting a floor beneath oil prices, but weaker demand and a slower global economy putting a cap on prices.

OPEC production hits two-year high. OPEC production 
rose in October to its highest level in nearly two years. Higher output from Saudi Arabia, Libya and the UAE pushed production up 390,000 bpd compared to September’s levels. The figures gave the market confidence OPEC will be able to supply the market as Iranian production goes offline.

Oil majors post huge earnings. The third quarter earnings for the oil majors were the strongest in years, with a significant jump in profits. Cost-cutting and higher oil prices led to a windfall for the world’s largest oil companies. Most of them are sticking with a plan of capital discipline, with an emphasis on boosting shareholder returns.

Venezuela’s refinery utilization plummets, leading to fuel shortages. Venezuela’s refineries are operating at low levels as the nation runs short on crude oil. Refineries have averaged a meager 17 percent utilization rate this year, according to 
Bloomberg, down from 50 percent last year and 70 percent in 2016. Gas shortages have spread quickly and there is no end in sight for the crisis.

Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next week.

Best Regards,

Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com

DE REGELS VAN HOLLANDISTAN!



Door Realpredictor
Het wordt hoe langer hoe gekker in Nederland! Straks worden ook alle Nederlandse wetten in het Arabisch vertaald om de "nieuwe" bevolking tegemoet te komen en om hen zo veel mogelijk gebruik te kunnen laten maken van de Voordelen voor de "Nieuwe Nederlanders"!

OH YES!! Mueller’s WORST NIGHTMARE COMING TRUE Right After THIS GOT UNCOVERED From Roger Stone!!

https://youtu.be/svVdz6JvGWc

 Source: News Today

Ex-General of the United States talks about what they really found on Mars

https://youtu.be/CqZDUoQDpxU

 Source: Strange Things

X ANON... GEORGE CARLIN ON THE DEEP STATE

https://youtu.be/5BuglpB9Syo

 Source: X Anon

The vaguely bipolar Bank of England



NICK HUBBLE
Dear Reader

I read a history of the Bank of England (BoE) last year. It wasn’t very exciting. Even when armed guards took up positions to protect the bank from riots and during the war, not much happened.

But one thing did shine through the book. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street always knew what she was doing. Or pretended to know. There was certainty and continuity.

At yesterday’s press conference, governor of the BoE Mark Carney was clueless. He told the financial media he didn’t know what he’d do about interest rates in coming months. Mostly because of Brexit.

But here’s the shocking part. Even if he did know what was about to happen on Brexit, he’d still would not know what he was going to do about interest rates. That’s a whole new level of cluelessness.

Carney couldn’t even rule out any possibilities. Whether it’s hard Brexit, soft Brexit, or anything in between, rates might go up, they might go down, or they might stay the same. Everything is on the table.

Helpful, isn’t it?

But why would the BoE hike interest rates if there’s a no-deal Brexit? That was the first question of the Q&A.

Carney explained his answer carefully. And it explains the nature of his uncertainty.

The BoE is worried about three things when it comes to Brexit. The demand shock from people buying less. The supply shock from people producing and trading less. And the currency shock from a tumbling or surging pound.

The three variables make things very confusing.

If supply falls dramatically due to economic disruption and trade barriers, that could cause inflation. This is the issue when it comes to food prices. If we can’t get our hands on the European-produced food we subsidise, food prices will go up.

These sorts of supply shocks are very rare in developed economies, Carney repeated a few times. Which means he doesn’t know what to do in the face of such a shock. There’s just not enough academic theory backing him.

The demand effect is simple. Brexit could mean people buy and invest less, cutting GDP and jobs. This is a more familiar problem. It’s deflationary – a typical recession-type risk.

Because Brexit risks an inflationary supply shock and a deflationary demand shock at the same time, the BoE finds itself on a wobbly tightwire that’s about to be cut at both ends. Everything changes at once. So the appropriate policy response is not obvious.

But it’s Carney’s comments on the currency that are most fascinating. He’s worried a drop in the pound could trigger inflation by making imports expensive.

This is the more traditional concern for central bankers. Historically, the BoE played a currency manipulation role. It had to support the pound. Politicians and economists feared unstable exchange rates. Especially falling ones. Which is amusing given the modern advent of currency wars and competing devaluations.

Back in the day, the BoE would raise interest rates to protect the pound. Economic conditions were secondary to the exchange rate.

This is what happened the evening before Britain left the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Interest rates were raised from 10% to 12% to 15% within hours. But it didn’t work. Selling pressure on the pound continued.

Chancellor Norman Lamont finally abandoned the ERM on Wednesday 16 September. The pound crashed 17% and the day became known as Black Wednesday.

During his press conference, Carney appeared to reference this sort of thinking. He might have to defend the pound, old-school style, and raise rates.

But journalists and economists in this morning’s papers are sceptical. It would do too much damage to the debt-based modern economy. Better to have the pound drop.

A more recent historical repeat is more likely. After the referendum, the BoE cut rates, believing the demand shock would trump all other considerations. The risk was deflation and a recession.

But the currency took the brunt of the beating, forcing the BoE to reverse its rate decision soon after. They’d added inflationary fuel to the pound’s inflationary fire. And the demand shock barely materialised.

Clueless in practice, not just theory.

You may be interested in

PICTURE
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The leeches and bloodletting theory of economic management

It took doctors thousands of years to do more good than harm. It’ll take economists longer. And the existence of central bankers completely rules out the possibility for now.

What bothers me about the BoE’s vaguely bi-polar policy position is timing.

The supply, demand and currency shocks are all once off shocks to the economy. They’re not ongoing issues. Prices will ratchet up, down, or nowhere, but then stabilise. By the time the BoE acts, the effect will be baked in. The BoE will only add instability.

So, not only does the BoE not know what effects Brexit will have when it comes to inflation, but it will react too late, and overdo it as well. It’s similar to the rate cut after the referendum. An embarrassing panic that comes too late and has to be reversed.

But what about the opposite scenario? What if Brexit works out rather well? Or even too well?

Believe it or not, even Carney has had to admit the possibility. He’s now warning the country that a decent Brexit deal will be so good he’ll have to raise interest rates faster than expected.

A Financial Times journalist asked an absolutely brilliant question on this, which should put fear into the hearts of UK borrowers. Imagine the following sequence of events.

A sudden recovery and rebound in economic activity from a Brexit deal.

A burst in Donald Trump-style economic growth from the new budget, which Carney’s press conference projections did not take into account according to him.

A surge in business investment growth, which has been pent up due to Brexit uncertainty.

Wage growth from lower immigration.

Domestic inflation pressures from low unemployment.

A trade boom with nations outside the EU.

In other words, what if everything goes embarrassingly well? What if the British economy is “unleashed”, as Carney summarised the FT journalist’s question.

His answer was helpful. The BoE forecast, in such a scenario, has inflation rising above target. And “one can draw conclusions from that.”

Readers, it’s time to prepare for interest rate hikes. Presuming the Europeans can hold their financial system together for that long.

A top down revolution in Europe

The Italian prime minister has thrown off his technocratic shackles and joined the populist swing of things. You’d think he was elected given his recent comments.

Here’s what he told the newspaper Corriere della Sera, according to the Express, in response to getting the blame for stalled economic growth:

Saying the government is responsible for the current unemployment and growth data is unreasonable and profoundly unjust.

The positive effects of our reforms will be seen from 2019.

Our revolution has just begun.

We put the first pieces, but the work to be done is ambitious: we want to change Italy from top to bottom.
And my personal favourite bit, “I would not see our dialogue with the European Commission as an exchange of concessions.” 

Italy’s budget isn’t a negotiation. It’s an offer it can’t refuse. Or they’ll find a dead euro in their bed.

My book continues to anticipate the Italian crisis, every step of the way. We’re rattling through chapter nine faster than I’d expected. Chapter ten features Britain. You’d better catch up soon.
Until next time,

Nick Hubble
Capital & Conflict

Trump and the WTO's Uncertain Future. Subscribe to Learn More.

  
U.S. President Donald Trump has his guns trained on China today, but a bigger war is brewing at the World Trade Organization — where the future of the global trade system is at stake. For the past two years, the United States has blocked new appointments to the WTO's Appellate Body, the organization's de facto supreme court over trade disputes. And unless new appointments are made by Dec. 10, 2019, the body's membership will fall below the number needed to rule on cases. In effect, the United States is threatening to sideline the WTO's crowning achievement — a strong dispute-resolution mechanism — giving the rest of the world just one year to offer concessions on reform to the United States, to seek other options or to face a world where the mechanism disintegrates. READ MORE
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Saudi Arabia wants to lure tourists — and their currency — to the kingdom. The effort is another element of the country's ambitious Vision 2030 reform plan and part of its strategy to bring in more foreign direct investment. The kingdom already hosts millions of pilgrims each year for the Muslim pilgrimage, or hajj, to the cities of Mecca and Medina. But entering the secular tourist trade will be a new experience for the Saudi government, which has previously reserved most of its visas for foreigners coming either to do business or make their hajj. Already the kingdom is liberalizing its visas for tourists and setting up infrastructure with cinemas, amusement parks, museums and other entertainment venues. But that's the easy part. Reforming a poor international reputation, luring middle-class tourists away from regional competitors, convincing pilgrims to visit new tourist attractions and grappling with the cultural impact of an influx of foreigners will all be much harder. READ MORE
 
During the two months before Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro takes office on Jan. 1, he will begin to fill in the details of a busy agenda that is shaping up to be a politically controversial one. Bolsonaro, who ran on a law-and-order political platform, wooed Brazilian voters weary of years of economic decline, growing crime and corruption scandals reaching the top echelons of government with promises to create stability and economic growth. While his policies to fight corruption are still works in progress, they likely will form a centerpiece of his presidency. READ MORE
Big infrastructure dates back millennia. From the Phoenician ports to the Roman roads to the pre-Columbian causeways of Mesoamerica, large engineering works enabled the growth of empire. Today infrastructure plays a crucial role in everything from economic growth to poverty reduction and from health care to national security. The West has long relegated it to a secondary development objective, but China's gambit to use infrastructure as a vehicle for promoting foreign policy objectives is changing the geopolitical landscape. Stratfor contributor Jeff Goodson explains. READ MORE

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