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$400 Oil… Is Not That Far-Fetched
For half a century it has been an act considered completely off limits…
A taboo subject…
Too dangerous to even mention.
Leave it to the world's most dangerous man to change all of that.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. His father is the actual king, but he is in poor health and everyone knows that the Crown Prince is running the show.
For months now we have been keeping tabs on MBS… Warning you that he is a risk to global stability.
But the reality of how dangerous this man is has never been more apparent than right now.
This past weekend, on Sunday, October 14, 2018, to be exact, the Crown Prince went where his predecessors wouldn't dare go…
Where the whole world would advise against going…
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Through a very thinly veiled threat, MBS told the world that he was willing to use the Kingdom's ultimate weapon — cutting off access to the vast Saudi oil reserves upon which economies across the planet rely on.
Make no mistake, this weapon is very real. Saudi Arabia is still by a wide margin the largest oil exporter on the planet.1 Yes, we produce a lot of oil in the United States, but we consume all of it and then some.
If Saudi Arabia were to restrict the supply of oil to importing nations, the entire planet would be destabilized.
Don't think that MBS would ever actually use this weapon?
Then you haven't been watching the actions of the young prince.
An Impressive List of Misdeeds for Someone So Young
MBS is 33 years old.
With his position at the top of Saudi Arabia, this young man has as much power and wealth as almost anyone on the planet.
But his use of that power and wealth to date does not inspire much confidence in his actions going forward.
The prince came to power promising a new modern age for Saudi Arabia…
An age where human rights were finally respected in Saudi Arabia and barbaric ancient traditions finally left behind…
An age where Saudi corruption would be cleaned up and the oil wealth of the nation used to the benefit of all Saudi people instead of just a royal few.
Those were his words. Though his actions have been much different.
Instead of cleaning up corruption, the prince went on a personal shopping spree. In fact, it may have been the most epic personal shopping spree in the history of mankind.
Using the Saudi oil wealth, the Crown prince purchased for himself:
The world's most expensive home, paying $300 million for the 54,000 foot Chateau Louis XIV castle in France — a replica of the famous Chateau de Vaux-le-Vicomte.
The world's most expensive painting, paying $450 million for Leonardo da Vinci's Salvator Mundi.
The world's most expensive yacht, paying $500 million for Russian tycoon Yuri Shefler's 440 foot ship named the Serene.
On the surface these purchases are obscene. Dig deeper and it gets even worse.
He bought all of these things while putting already dirt poor Saudi citizens on an austerity program meant to offset the drop in global oil prices.
He bought all of these things while locking up other members of the Saudi Royal family under the guise of a corruption crackdown which was really a shakedown to further enrich himself.
And he bought all of these things while launching thousands of airstrikes on Yemen and creating the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet…
A crisis where more than 22 million are in need of humanitarian assistance, the entire country is on the edge of famine, and the worst cholera outbreak in modern human history is quickly spreading.
Let's be real.
This man's hypocrisy knows no bounds.
Which leads me to believe there is no reason to believe that this man possesses a conscious that would stop him from unleashing the Saudi oil weapon of mass destruction.
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Over the past weekend, excerpts of President Trump's interview with 60 Minutes were leaked.
Included in what was leaked was President Trump saying that Saudi Arabia would face "severe punishment" if the kingdom was found to be behind the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The next morning, Riyadh issued through the Saudi Press Agency a rejection of all threats of economic sanctions, political pressure and false accusations, adding that it will respond to any action with "greater action."2
The "greater action" being the thinly veiled reference to use oil as a weapon.
Just minutes after the Saudi Press Agency released that statement, Turki Al Dakhil, the head of the Saudi state-owned news network (and tight ally with the Royal Court) wrote the following in reference to what the oil weapon could result in:
"If President Trump was angered by $80 oil, nobody should rule out the price jumping to $100 and $200 a barrel or maybe double that figure."
It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the fact that this article came just minutes after the official press release from Saudi Arabia means that these comments can be connected directly to MBS himself.
And yes, those comments would be a threat of $400 oil. (If that is what double $200 still equals!)
If that were to happen, could you imagine the carnage? It would be a Mad Max film come to life.
As to whether MBS would actually do it?
I certainly don't know.
But given what he has done so far… how could you rule it out?
As the end of October approaches, I'm noticing tombstones popping up in a number of my neighbor's yards.
Of course, my kids are getting excited about Halloween and binging on as much sugar as possible over the next few weeks. But while the fake tombstones in my neighborhood have my kids excited about candy, I'm seeing a number of Wall Street tombstones popping up in my daily research.
And these tombstones are directly related to some great investment gains you can lock in this week.
If you're not familiar with Wall Street's tombstones — or how to make money from them — now is a great time to get up to speed.
Because as earnings season kicks off and the market rebounds from last week's pullback, this strategy is set to put thousands (if not tens of thousands — or even hundreds of thousands) of extra profits in your account.
Let's take a look…
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When I took my first investment job at a hedge fund in Atlanta, my boss walked into my room and dropped a thick stack of research on my desk. I didn't know it at the time, but the binder on top was known as a "tombstone."
A tombstone is simply a document prepared for a new stock or bond offering, which lists all the specific details for the deal. The nickname comes from the fact that the cover of each set of documents has a resemblance to the way the names and dates are laid out on a typical tombstone.
As I spent time on the research desk, I began to realize that these tombstones offered some very important information for investors. And the information wasn't just about the companies that were covered in the document.
If you knew where to look, these tombstones could tell you exactly what type of profits the big Wall Street firms were going to book.
Take a look at the tombstone below to see just what I'm talking about.
The picture above is the tombstone of a new IPO (or initial public offering) stock that was sold to the public this month. Every time a new stock is listed, the company is required to file a document like this with the SEC.
In this case, the stock was Equillium Inc. (EQ). And I want to be clear here, I am NOT recommending shares of EQ. Instead, I want to point your attention to the specific areas circled in red.
For this particular deal, EQ was sold to new investors at a price of $14 per share. But instead of all of this money going to the company, a material portion — $0.98 per share in this case — went to the underwriters.
The underwriters are the Wall Street companies who helped Equillium find new investors. And these underwriters booked a total of $4.60 million in fees from this particular deal.
As I'm sure you can see, these deals can be extremely lucrative for Wall Street firms. Because nearly all of these fees represent pure profit for the "underwriters." All the Wall Street companies have to do is find investors who want to buy a hot stock, and then put the shares in the investors' accounts!
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This week, earnings season moved into high gear with some big Wall Street firms reporting strong profits.
You may have seen that both Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) announced earnings that beat expectations and sent their stock prices higher. A large part of the earnings beat came from profitable deals that show up on thee tombstone filings.
More importantly, we're now entering a period where these deals are going to become more prevalent and more profitable.
The summer months can be slow when it comes to pricing new stocks. That's because institutional investors are often on vacation and no one wants to issue a high-profile IPO when the most important decision makers are off the desk.
But now that institutional investors are back in the office, these deals are picking back up.
Case in point: this week, news wires reported that Uber Technologies is reviewing proposals from big Wall Street firms who are offering to help with the company's IPO.
At this point, it looks like this new stock offering will value Uber at $120 billion. That puts Uber's size on par with International Business Machines (IBM) — a blue chip company that has been around for decades!
I can tell you that the big Wall Street firms like Goldman and Morgan Stanley are salivating over the profits that this type of offering will bring!
And Uber isn't the only big company considering an IPO transaction. Just over the next few weeks, I see a minimum of 10 new stocks set to launch.1
So today, as earnings season heats up and new deals hit the market, I expect big underwriters like GS and MS to continue to move higher. After all, investors are going to see these deals coming to market and they will connect the dots with higher Wall Street earnings.
At this point, most blue chip Wall Street stocks are trading at reasonable price points. But heading into the end of the year, I expect these stocks to move sharply higher. Now is a great time to take advantage of last week's pullback by adding shares of these investment banks to your investment account.