woensdag 4 april 2018

The energy to dump the dollar

Nick Hubble

Dear Reader

We hope you had a happy Easter. The US financial markets didn’t. They were open yesterday. And it wasn’t a pretty sight.

The worst opening day for the second quarter since the Great Depression led the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average – a key level traders watch. It had been a steady support level until now.

The Dow bounced off the same level, and the Nasdaq is still approaching it. The point is, we’re at a crossroads for the stockmarket. A few more down days and we’re in for a bear market. Thanks to lower lows and lower highs in the market’s usual gyrations, it’s looking likely.

Not to mention this simple crash predictor, which also tells you how far down stocks will go.

A bear market now is a horrific prospect for British investors. The FTSE finally made new highs before returning to the 1999 level in the latest correction.

Speaking of corrections, Easter’s political news was just as remarkable as the American stockmarket tumble.

In Europe, President Emmanuel Macron faces vast strikes. Rail services and Air France are expecting partial service. Energy and garbage collection companies are in trouble too. Not to mention the usual student protests. Ms Macron has disappeared from the news cycle.

In 2015, I was almost tear gassed in an Uber by the Seine. It was a nice reminder of the nature of European politics. In Australia, our protests look a little different. One recently featured white South African immigrants screaming their thanks to an Australian politician for suggesting humanitarian visas for South African farmers...

The EU’s politics got interesting too. The Dutch have taken on the British mantle of trying to keep the EU under control. With the EU’s key supporter Macron under fire in France, and Angela Merkel facing the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party as an opposition, the EU is starting to realise it’s in trouble. The 2019 EU elections are on the horizon. I wonder what a largely eurosceptic parliament would do?

In the US, the hilarious PR battle over Donald Trump continues. And the same man continues to win. The president’s approval ratings are rising and far ahead of Barack Obama’s equivalent at the same point in their two presidencies. This after the media interviewed a porn star about her affair with Trump, delivering the highest number of viewers for the programme in ten years.

But the biggest news wasn’t even in the news.